A year and a half ago, I did a fairly extensive look at the count in baseball, which was an embarrassing amount of fun. I have no idea why I get as much joy of sports spreadsheets as I do … sometimes my wife will walk into the office, take one look at my computer screen with all these rows and columns of numbers, shake her head and wonder why in the heck I couldn’t balance a checkbook before she married me.*
*I still can’t balance a checkbook.
In any case, I figured that last count thing was probably the last time I was going to do a count study, at least for a good long while … except something has been bugging me about it. It hit me hard while I was watching a game on TV, I’m not even sure what game. I heard the announcer offer some count statistic, maybe it was about how batters this year are hitting .337 on a 2-1 count and hitting .166 on an 1-2 count, and this led to a benign conversation of how important it is for pitchers to throw strikes, to get ahead of the count and so on and so forth …
Something hit me. It’s not something new, but it hit me with full force this time. Those batting average stats (which I quoted extensively the last time I wrote about counts) are irredeemably flawed. You undoubtedly know why … the problem, of course, is strikeouts. I immediately got up and went to the computer to check.
See, on a 2-1 count, if you swing and miss or let a strike go by … nothing happens. The at-bat goes on. There are no strikeouts to take down the average, so you’re only measuring balls put in play.
But, on a 1-2 count, if you swing and miss or let a strike go by … you’re out. Strikeout. He gone.
Is that the whole difference between 2-1 and 1-2? Well, no, not quite the whole difference, but it’s the bulk of it.
Hitters on 2-1 count in 2010 are hitting .337 and slugging .552.
Hitters on 1-2 count in 2010 are hitting .166 and slugging .224.
BUT, take strikeouts out of the equation …
Hitters on 1-2 count in 2010 suddenly are hitting .301 and slugging .443. And while that’s not as good as 2-1, it’s not so far off. Since 2000, take away strikeouts, hitters on a 1-2 count have hit .309 and slugged .459, which really isn’t too bad.
In fact, when a hitter puts a ball in play, no matter the count, he hits .better than .300. Every count — even 0-2 — the hitter is hitting .300 on balls in play.
First pitch: .338
0-1: .318
1-0: .339
0-2: .302
1-1: .326
2-0: .353
1-2: .309
2-1: .337
3-0: .393
2-2: .317
3-1: .355
Full count: .339
There are some clear fluctuations on those hitters counts when pitchers need to throw strikes — 2-0, 3-1, 3-0 the averages are quite a bit higher — but I don’t think the fluctuations are as dramatic as I once did. Yes, hitters do seem to hit the ball better and with more authority when locked in on a certain pitch in the strike zone, the difference I think now is much smaller than the big gap in raw averages had led me to believe. I would love to look deeper into this … I wish there was some count charts that would also show how many balls were taken for a strike, swung at, missed and fouled off.
There are some other fun things I picked up this time around by breaking down the count since 2000. If you want to impress people at the ballgame — and I know you do — this should help. You can thank me by buying 12 copies of my next book.*
*More on this next book soon … like you care.
Best count to SEE a home run: First pitch.
About 18% of all home runs are hit on the first pitch of the at-bat, which is way more than any other pitch. So in some ways, first pitch is the home run pitch — that’s how the expression “first ball fastball hitter” became so prominent.
Best count to HIT a home run: 3-0.
This is a little bit different. More home runs are hit on the first pitch than any other, but more of just about anything happens on the first pitch of the at-bat. The ball is put in play on the first pitch about 25% more often than any other pitch. So your best bet to see a home run is on that pitch.
But if you are a batter looking to HIT a home run … getting the green light to hit 3-0 is the ticket. Believe it or not, it only happens about 300 times a year that a hitter puts a 3-0 pitch in play. But when he does … he hits a home run about 9.5% of the time.
The 3-1 pitch (6.2% of the time) and the 2-0 pitch (6.0%) are, as you might expect, excellent home run pitches as well.
Best count to steal a base: 2-0.
Well, running 3-0 is really the safest bet — base stealers have made it a staggering 87.9% of the time — but it’s a rare thing for a team to run 3-0 (and, if you do run, the pitcher might throw Ball 4 which would make the whole point moot). The best real running count is 2-0 … base stealers have made it 77.9% of the time since 2000.
In many ways, 2-0 is the best offensive count going. The pitcher is under some pressure to throw a strike. A foul ball still leaves the hitter in the very comfortable 2-1 count. The base runner has options. Life tends to be good for the offensive team if they can work 2-0 counts.
Worst count to steal a base: 3-2.
Base stealers are thrown out 48.4% of the time on full counts … I guess that’s no surprise. The runners are often in motion on full counts, as manager rely on the batter not striking out. When the batters DO strike out, the moving runners are often sitting ducks.
What did surprise me is that 3-1 tends to be a bad count for base stealing. Base stealers were successful only 63% of the time on 3-1, and even though it’s a limited sample size (there have only been 865 official stolen base attempts on 3-1 since 2001), that’s still surprising to me. I suppose there are still some of the elements of the full count phenomenon — managers send the hitters on 3-1 and rely on either a walk or the hitter putting the ball in play.
Best pitch to go for the K: 0-2.
Well, I don’t know if the numbers really say that … but it is true that when 0-2 is the action pitch, pitchers get the strikeout 46.2% of the time, a higher percentage than any of the other two-strike counts. I have talked to more than one pitching coach who thinks wasting a pitch on 0-2 is bad baseball … especially in today’s watch-the-pitch-count environment. “You have him 0-2, go finish him off,” one pitching coach says. “Hitters are very uncomfortable hitting 0-2. I don’t think pitchers take enough advantage of that.”
Most like pitch for a double play: First pitch.
Absolutely no doubt about this one … Almost 20% of all double plays come on the first pitch of an at-bat.
The first pitch in many ways is really the most dramatic pitch in baseball. It’s when you will see the most doubles, the most triples, the home runs, the most double plays, the most sacrifice bunts, the most sacrifice flies, even the most reached on error.
I remember years ago when a man named Miles Prentice wanted to buy the Kansas City Royals, he would get incensed because the Royals were swinging at too many first pitches. The story everyone heard — though it was denied by some of the people involved — was that Prentice even told the manager Tony Muser that he wanted the Royals to STOP SWINGING at the first pitch. Prentice may or may not have said it, and he may or may not have had a point, but what I did not realize until this breakdown is that the first pitch is probably baseball’s critical offensive pitch.
Are there more strikeouts or walks on 3-2 counts? Walks.
Another slight surprise, at least for me.
On 0-2 counts, as mentioned, hitters strike out 45.6%.
On 1-2 counts, hitters strike out 42.5%
On 2-2 counts, hitters strike out 38.6%
But on 3-2 counts, hitters only strike out 22% of the time … and they walk 31%. I suppose the biggest part of this drop-off in strikeouts is the reverse of the batting average situation above … if a pitcher throws a ball on an 0-2 count, the at-bat just goes on and it isn’t recorded in the overall numbers. But if a pitcher throws a ball on 3-2, it’s obviously a walk.
Still, even discounting walks, pitchers strike out noticeably fewer batters on 3-2 than they do on the other two-strike counts. I have a theory, and I will admit right up front that it’s only a theory. I think good hitters tend to get themselves in 3-2 counts a lot more often than bad hitters do. I don’t have time for a full study on it, but a quick scan of good and bad hitters in 2010 hints that this at least COULD be true.
Daric Barton: 127 times.
Jose Bautista: 123 times.
Joey Votto: 84 times.
Albert Pujols: 79 times.
Prince Fielder: 79 times.
Miggy Cabrera: 75 times.
Jose Lopez: 43 times.
Jeff Francoeur: 39 times
Yuniesky Betancourt: 24 times.
A.J. Pierzynski: 23 times.
My theory is that good hitters force 3-2 count with a lot more regularity because they are (A) Good at seeing pitches; (B) Pretty locked in. And once they get to a 3-2 count, once they are even with pitcher, they will perform pretty well. They will take a walk if offered. And when they put the ball in play, they will hit .339 (as mentioned above) and slug .562.
Take Mark Reynolds, the King of K. Reynolds obviously strikes out a ton, but if you look at his numbers you will notice those strikeouts fall off noticeable when the count is full.
In his career, he has struck out:
0-2 count: 109 out of 178 PAs (61.2%)
1-2 count: 250 out of 382 PAs (65.4%)
2-2 count: 233 out of 386 PAs (60.0%)
3-2 count: 146 out of 388 PAs. (37.6%).
If you take strikeouts and walks out of the equation, Reynolds is hitting .459 and slugging 1.153 with a full count.
Let’s fine another strikeout guy who is a good hitter — OK, how about Ryan Howard? Same story:
0-2 count: 155 out of 233 PAs (66.5%)
1-2 count: 327 out of 532 PAs (61.4%)
2-2 count: 305 out of 532 PAs (57.3%)
3-2 count: 218 out of 617 PAs (35.3%)
If you take strikeouts and walks out of the equation, Howard is hitting .414 and slugging .874 with a full count.
Another? How about Adam Dunn? Same story:
0-2 count: 239 out of 367 (65.1%)
1-2 count: 456 out of 747 (61.0%)
2-2 count: 535 out of 951 (56.2%)
3-2 count: 371 out of 1215 (30.5%)
One more time, take strikeouts and walks out of the question … Dunn is hitting .378 and slugging .818 with a full count.
Again, I’m just picking and choosing here, but it’s an interesting question. It seems to me that even when you put even strikeout prone good hitters like Reynolds or Howard or Dunn on an even plane with the pitcher — one pitch, ball or strike or hit — they are awfully good. They will draw the walk more often than they will strike out. And when they hit the ball, they will hit it with power. Anyway, it’s just something to talk about.
No surprise: 75% of all sacrifice hits happen on the first two pitches.
And about 43% of all sacrifice flies happen on the first two pitches …
Best count for a fan to look smart: 3-1.
I’ve written this before, but I never really broke down the easy way to look like a baseball guru to the people around you at the ballpark. So here you go.
When the count is 3-1 — especially if it’s a crucial situation and a good hitter’s at the plate — you will want to say something out loud like: “Oh oh, this is a dangerous pitch” (if the home team is pitching); or “Oh yeah, this is the pitch right here that breaks the game wide open (if the home team is batting).”
And this is like a good magic trick — it will work no matter what follows. Here are the appropriate reactions for each scenario:
Single (happens 10% of the time): “Yeah, saw that coming.”
Extra base hit (happens 7% of the time): “Yep, just had a feeling.”
Walk (happens 52.3% of the time): “Pitcher wanted no part of him there.”
Foul ball or vicious swing and miss: “Oh, just missed that one.”
Taken strike: “You have to be more aggressive there, that was a very hittable pitch.”
And of the outs, which happen less than 31% of the time.
Hard hit: “You knew he’d get a good swing there.”
Soft out: “Well, that’s just a missed opportunity.”
It never fails.